Corporate Update: TC Energy Corp. Announces Mixed Q3 Results and Strategic Outlook
TC Energy Corp. released its third‑quarter financial statements on Wednesday, 7 November 2025. While the company reported a decline in earnings per share relative to the same period last year, revenue increased modestly, driven primarily by heightened consumption in data‑centre operations, gas exports, and power‑sector projects. The company reaffirmed its three‑year financial guidance through 2028 and reaffirmed several new growth projects totaling more than $5 billion in low‑risk, accretive initiatives over the past year.
1. Quarterly Performance Summary
| Metric | 2024 Q3 | 2025 Q3 | YoY % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (USD M) | 1,850 | 1,890 | +2.2 % |
| Earnings per share | $0.84 | $0.78 | –7.1 % |
| Operating margin | 12.5 % | 11.8 % | –0.7 pp |
| Net cash from operations | $285 | $270 | –5.3 % |
- Revenue drivers: Increased consumption by data‑centre clients and gas export volumes, offset by a modest decline in coal‑led power sales.
- Earnings pressure: Higher operating costs, particularly in procurement of natural‑gas derivatives, and a slight uptick in capital expenditure related to new renewable projects.
2. Energy Market Analysis
2.1 Supply–Demand Fundamentals
- Natural‑gas market: The global spot price for North American natural gas remained stable at $4.25 /MMBtu during Q3, after a 4 % decline in the previous quarter. This stability is attributable to robust U.S. production and a gradual easing of European supply constraints.
- Renewable electricity demand: The European Union’s 2024 “Fit for 55” legislative package has accelerated the uptake of offshore wind and solar PV, with a year‑on‑year increase in installed capacity of 12 GW. In North America, the growth of data‑centre infrastructure continues to push demand for low‑carbon power, reflected in the higher consumption noted by TC Energy.
2.2 Technological Innovations
- Energy storage: Advances in solid‑state battery chemistry have reduced the cost of grid‑scale storage by 18 % since 2023, improving the viability of intermittent renewable generation. TC Energy has partnered with a leading battery manufacturer to deploy 300 MWh of storage capacity across its renewable portfolio.
- Hydrogen production: Electrolyzer costs have fallen by 22 % over the past two years. TC Energy’s pilot green hydrogen facility in Texas, which began operation in July 2025, is expected to supply 200 t/day by 2027, positioning the company as a key player in the emerging low‑carbon fuel market.
2.3 Regulatory Impacts
- Carbon pricing: The introduction of the European Union Emissions Trading System (ETS) cap on 2025 has raised the cost of coal‑based electricity by an estimated €15/GWh, creating a competitive advantage for gas and renewable producers.
- U.S. policy: The Biden administration’s proposed Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act includes $15 billion for renewable energy development. TC Energy has secured multiple federal grants to accelerate its offshore wind projects in the Gulf of Mexico.
3. Investment and Growth Strategy
TC Energy reaffirmed the approval of several low‑risk, accretive growth projects totaling more than $5 billion over the last year. Key initiatives include:
- Offshore Wind Expansion: A 1.2 GW offshore wind farm in the Atlantic, slated for completion in 2027, leveraging the latest floating turbine technology to reduce installation costs by 30 %.
- Solar PV Deployment: A 600 MW solar park in the Southwestern United States, incorporating agrivoltaic techniques to improve land-use efficiency.
- Green Hydrogen Hub: Expansion of the Texas electrolyzer plant to 500 t/day by 2028, with a focus on integrating with the regional natural‑gas pipeline network.
The company’s management highlighted sustained investment visibility through the end of the decade, citing favorable macro‑economic conditions, supportive policy frameworks, and a strong pipeline of projects across both traditional and renewable energy sectors.
4. Dividend and Cash Flow Outlook
- Dividend policy: TC Energy confirmed the continuation of quarterly dividends, with a target payout ratio of 50 % of net income.
- Cash flow: Operating cash flow remains robust, with an estimated $310 million for Q4 2025, supporting both dividend payments and ongoing capital expenditures.
5. Conclusion
TC Energy’s Q3 results reflect a transitional period in the global energy market, where traditional gas and coal operations are gradually giving way to renewable and low‑carbon solutions. Despite a slight dip in earnings, the company’s strategic focus on renewable expansion, energy storage, and green hydrogen positions it to capture upside as policy incentives and technological advances continue to reshape supply‑side dynamics. The reaffirmed three‑year guidance through 2028 underscores confidence in the company’s ability to navigate short‑term volatility while capitalizing on long‑term energy‑transition trends.
