Glencore PLC Expands Copper Production Plan and Secures Chilean Partnership

Glencore PLC has outlined a strategy to substantially increase its copper output over the coming decade, with a target of reaching 1.6 million tonnes per year by 2035. The company’s announcement, made during its first capital‑markets briefing in three years, also noted a moderation of its short‑term production goals for 2026 as part of a broader effort to rebound from a recent decline in output.

In parallel, Glencore has entered into a memorandum of understanding with Chile’s state‑owned copper producer Codelco to develop a new smelter in the Antofagasta region. The partnership aims to boost local copper processing capacity, with Codelco providing concentrate and Glencore taking the lead on the smelter’s development. The project is expected to move toward a definitive agreement in the first half of 2026, with construction anticipated to start around 2030 and the facility becoming operational in the early 2030s.

These developments reflect Glencore’s focus on expanding its presence in the copper market while collaborating with key regional partners to enhance processing capabilities and support the broader energy transition.

Strategic Context

Copper is a critical input for the global shift toward low‑carbon technologies, powering electric vehicles, renewable energy infrastructure, and advanced electronics. Consequently, demand for copper has risen sharply and is projected to continue growing. By committing to a 1.6 million‑tonne per year output by 2035, Glencore positions itself to capture a larger share of this expanding market. The decision to moderate 2026 targets suggests a deliberate pacing strategy, likely aimed at aligning upstream mining operations with downstream processing capacity and mitigating supply chain risks.

The memorandum with Codelco aligns with a broader trend of mining firms partnering with national producers to secure processing pipelines. Local smelters reduce logistical costs, minimize carbon emissions associated with long‑haul transport, and enable quicker responsiveness to market price swings. For Chile, a country with an abundance of copper concentrate but limited domestic smelting capacity, the partnership offers a pathway to increase domestic value capture.

Financial and Operational Implications

Glencore’s plan to ramp up output will require significant capital investment, both in expanding mine infrastructure and in ensuring sufficient smelting capacity. The Antofagasta smelter, slated for construction around 2030, is expected to provide a critical processing node that will absorb a portion of Glencore’s future copper output. This vertical integration reduces dependence on third‑party smelters, potentially improving margins and enhancing price hedging capabilities.

From a risk perspective, the 2026 production moderation may signal a cautious approach to resource depletion, commodity price volatility, and operational disruptions. By aligning production with actual supply chain capacity, Glencore can avoid over‑leveraging and maintain flexibility to respond to unforeseen market shifts.

Broader Industry Dynamics

The copper market has been reshaped by a combination of supply constraints, geopolitical tensions, and heightened demand from the electric‑vehicle and renewable energy sectors. Glencore’s expansion aligns with a multi‑sector push toward decarbonisation, where copper’s high conductivity and recyclability make it indispensable. Other majors—such as BHP, Rio Tinto, and Freeport McMoRan—are similarly increasing production targets, creating a competitive landscape that prioritises scale, cost control, and value‑chain integration.

The Chilean partnership also illustrates a growing trend of resource‑rich countries collaborating with global mining operators to build domestic processing capacity. This trend is driven by both economic incentives—capturing a larger share of the value chain—and strategic considerations—reducing foreign dependence on critical minerals.

Conclusion

Glencore’s decade‑long copper output expansion, coupled with its strategic collaboration with Codelco, positions the company to better serve the accelerating demand for copper in the global energy transition. By aligning production growth with new smelting capacity and engaging in a partnership that bolsters regional processing infrastructure, Glencore demonstrates an adaptive, analytical approach to navigating the evolving dynamics of the mining and metals sector.